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Here’s the gist of this new NBC News poll (conducted May 29–June 7, 2,400 registered voters, ±2 points margin of error):
Generic congressional ballot: 49% of registered voters say they prefer Democratic control of Congress, compared to 44% who prefer Republican control, with 7% unsure — a 5-point Democratic edge. That’s roughly steady from March’s 6-point Democratic lead. NBC News
Trump’s approval: Trump’s approval rating among registered voters has dropped to 42%, the lowest mark of his second term in NBC News polling, matching a low previously seen in July 2020. Notably, support has softened even within his own party — Republican approval dropped from 88% in March to 82% now. NBC NewsNBC News
Coalition shifts: Some groups that moved toward Trump in 2024 are now souring on him — 64% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump versus 34% who approve, and 77% of voters aged 18-29 disapprove compared to 21% who approve. NBC News
Broader mood: 56% of voters believe America’s best years are behind it, versus 40% who think they’re still ahead — marking the fourth straight NBC poll where a majority took the pessimistic view. There’s also broad distrust of institutions: 58% of voters say they have very little or no confidence in Congress. NBC NewsNBC News
Context from pollsters: A Republican pollster involved called the numbers “rocky… but not catastrophic” for the GOP, noting Democrats only need to flip 3 House seats this cycle (versus a much bigger 2018 wave), though the Senate map remains tougher for them since several targets are states Trump won by double digits in 2024.
This is a sensitive political topic, so worth noting this is one poll with its own margin of error — different pollsters can show varying results depending on methodology and timing.

Elizabeth Rivera

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